Air passenger demand to double in 20 years

World’s future fastest-growing markets identified
The number of people up in the air will double in the next 20 years, the International Air Transport Association predicts, from 3.8 billion passengers in 2016 to 7.2 billion in 2035.
The forecast is based on a 3.7% annual compound average growth rate noted in the latest update to IATA’s 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast. Much of the growth will be seen in Asia.
“People want to fly. Demand for air travel over the next two decades is set to double. Enabling people and nations to trade, explore and share the benefits of innovation and economic prosperity makes our world a better place,” enthused Alexandre de Juniac, the association’s director general and chief executive.
An eastward shift is expected. The forecast confirms that the biggest driver of demand will be the Asia-Pacific region – the source of more than half of the new passengers over the next 20 years.
China will displace the USA as the world’s biggest aviation market in around 2029. India will displace the UK for third place in 2026, while Indonesia enters the top ten at the expense of Italy.
Growth will also increasingly be driven within developing markets, which have risen from 24% to nearly 40% over the last decade, a trend that is set to continue.
The five fastest-growing markets in terms of additional passengers per year over the next 20 years will be China (817 million new passengers for a total of 1.3 billion), the US (484 million new passengers for a total of 1.1 billion), India (322 million new passengers for a total of 442 million), Indonesia (135 million new passengers for a total of 242 million) and Vietnam (112 million new passengers for a total of 150 million).
The top ten fastest-growing markets in percentage terms will be in Africa, IATA says: Sierra Leone, Guinea, Central African Republic, Benin, Mali, Rwanda, Togo, Uganda, Zambia and Madagascar. Each of these is expected to grow by more than 8% a year on average over the next 20 years, doubling in size each decade.
TTG Nordic