Populism warning for travel industry

Travel companies should plan for Picasso, Dali, Bosch, Warhol scenarios
A new report by travel tech company Amadeus warns the industry to overcome economic and political disruption to harness future growth.
Called ‘What if? Imagining the future of the travel industry’, the report identifies trends of personalisation and seamless travel as key drivers of success in the next five to seven years.
It also outlines four different world scenarios of the future, warning that the emergence of protectionism and populism may hinder future commercial opportunities across the industry.
The Dali scenario assumes that both social attitudes and economic prosperity create a more favourable environment towards sharing data. This brings about more relaxed privacy laws and lighter regulation, which allows for greater personalisation of travel.
Living in the Dali scenario, travel becomes faster, cheaper and safer. People benefit from less security controls at borders and have real-time information about unexpected events such as flight delays.
The Picasso scenario is built on a fragmented world marked by the rise of populism and heightened security concerns. This has the effect of making more travel destinations off-limits.
Even so, most parts of the world would enjoy economic growth. Companies invest in innovation to reach more customers through mobile channels, and this interaction enables businesses to provide more sophisticated personalised offers.
In the Bosch scenario, business costs rise across the industry as companies struggle to comply with a mosaic of different legal, tax, labour and data protection laws. We are confronting a fragmented world based on protectionism and distrust. Facing Bosch’s political environment, travellers seek comfort in trusted brands and book directly with well-known travel providers.
The Warhol scenario is characterised by seamless and not personalised travel that considers the implications of strong economic growth in Asia, giving rise to a large middle class with more disposable income for travel and leisure. Travellers would rather go for low-cost, mass-market travel instead of having personalised options even in a world free of barriers.
To download the report, click here.
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