Travel to the USA has visibly underperformed since the president’s travel ban came into play.
With the US Supreme Court now hearing the arguments about the lawfulness of President Donald Trump’s travel ban, new analysis shows a substantial underperformance in travel to the USA since the original ban.
The analysis is being reported by ForwardKeys, a Valencia-based tech company that predicts future travel patterns by computing more than 17 million flight booking transactions a day, drawing data from all the major global air reservation systems and selected airlines and tour operators.
“In the period between Donald Trump announcing his first travel ban and the federal judge’s initial temporary blockage, bookings for inbound travel to the USA fell 6.5%, a phenomenon which has since been named the Trump Slump,” explains Olivier Jager, ForwardKeys’ chief executive.
“In the 15-month period between that first announcement and now [up to April 20], inbound travel to the USA was 1.4% down while global international travel grew 5%, on the equivalent period a year earlier.”
Ahead but behind
ForwardKeys maintains that looking ahead to the coming three months (May 1 to July 31), flight bookings to the USA are 2.9% ahead of the equivalent period the year before.
But flight bookings globally over the same period are 5.9% ahead, “so one has to conclude that since announcing the first travel ban, the USA has underperformed in the context of robust global travel demand.”
Jager continued: “ForwardKeys is not claiming that the United States’ inbound travel difficulties are caused by Donald Trump’s policies – not least because exchange rates have been challenging.”
He points out that in the period January 2017 to March 2018, the value of the pound and the euro against the dollar appreciated significantly – by 13% and 16%, respectively – making the US a significantly more expensive destination.